Climate Change | Dr. Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

The Past 3 Years Have Been the Three Hottest

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The recent analysis published by Berkeley Earth, corroborated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), confirms that 2025 was the third-warmest year on record. This year follows 2024 and 2023, collectively forming a three-year “warming spike” that deviates significantly from long-term linear trends and poses critical questions regarding the acceleration of anthropogenic climate change.

Statistical Overview and Record Benchmarks

In 2025, global average temperatures were estimated to be between 1.35°C and 1.53°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. While slightly lower than the peaks seen in 2024 ($1.46\text{--}1.62\text{°C}$) and 2023 ($1.48\text{--}1.60\text{°C}$), the data underscores a persistent breach of, or proximity to, the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement.

NOAA-NCEI’s independent methodology, which utilizes a 20th-century average as its benchmark, reached a consistent conclusion, placing 2025 at 1.17°C above that mean. This inter-agency consensus reinforces the reliability of current global thermometry despite varying analytical frameworks.

Dynamics of the “warming spike”

Chief Scientist Robert Rohde and other researchers suggest that the 2023–2025 period represents a potential shift in climate velocity. The magnitude of this spike exceeds what is typically attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and internal natural variability alone. Several exogenous and feedback factors are under investigation:

Aerosol Forcing: Post-2020 regulations reducing sulfur emissions from maritime shipping have inadvertently decreased the “parasol effect,” where sulfate aerosols reflect incoming solar radiation.
Volcanic Forcing: The 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption injected massive quantities of water vapor (a potent GHG) into the stratosphere, though its precise radiative forcing impact is still being quantified.
ENSO Transitions: While 2023 and 2024 were amplified by a strong El Niño, 2025 saw a transition to weak La Niña conditions. Typically, La Niña exerts a cooling influence; the fact that 2025 remained the third-hottest year despite this suggests that the underlying warming signal is increasingly dominant.

Sociopolitical and regional impacts

The human cost of this thermal trend is concentrated: in 2025, approximately 770 million people, primarily in Asia, experienced their hottest local year on record. Notably, no region on Earth recorded a record-cold year, highlighting the global scale of the imbalance.

Furthermore, data from the Rhodium Group indicates a 2.4% increase in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, complicating international mitigation efforts. As the U.S. recorded its fourth-hottest year, the disconnect between climate reality and emissions trajectories remains a primary concern for policymakers.

Future projections

Berkeley Earth projects that 2026 will likely be the fourth-warmest year on record. The transition of the 2023–2025 spike from an anomaly into a potential new “baseline” suggests that historical warming rates may no longer serve as reliable predictors for future climate modeling. This underscores the urgent need for robust, open-source climate data to inform evidence-based adaptation and mitigation strategies.

For more information please visit:

Scientists say the exceptional warming observed in the past 3 years could be evidence of accelerating warming. Credit: Berkeley Earth, CC BY-NC 4.0

Hidrodesafios 2025 Seminar

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

On Wednesday, November 26th 2025, I participated as a speaker at the seminar “ ” organized by the Sanitation Services Concessionaire Company S.A. (ECONSSA Chile) with sponsorship from the Chilean Association for Water Rights (AChDA) and Fundación Chile.

This event took place from 8:30 hrs at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in the Las Condes district, with the objective of addressing the future of the sanitation sector in a context of water scarcity and climate change, and analyzing the role of seawater desalination and wastewater reuse in confronting the water crisis.

My presentation was entitled “ ”, in which I addressed three key challenges for water resources in the Araucanía Region:

changes in the hydrological regime of mountain catchments and their impact on projected spring and summer streamflows,
selection of indices and timescales used to monitor droughts and the importance of linking them with droughts impacts on the territory,
the role of soil moisture in peak streamflows generated by intense storms, and preliminary results from an early flood warning system currently developed for critical basins of the Araucanía Region.

At the end of the day, representatives from the two presidential candidates debated the future of the healthcare sector in the context of water scarcity and climate change.

More information and the program for the event can be found at

Debate on proposals for the water and sanitary sector in Chile

III Regional Climate Change Seminar

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

On Friday, November 21 2025, I participated as a speaker at the III Regional Climate Change Seminar, organized by the Regional Environmental Secretariat (SEREMI) of the Araucanía Region, the Regional Government of the Araucanía Region, the Catholic University of Temuco, and EBP.

The seminar aimed to share the contents of the with key stakeholders in the region, strengthening regional understanding, ownership, and commitment to addressing the challenges of climate change.

Through a participatory, informative, and cultural forum, the seminar sought to highlight the actions being implemented in the region, promote the exchange of experiences, and raise awareness about the importance of local climate action to move towards a more resilient and sustainable region. The event included the participation of regional experts and professionals from public institutions who presented studies, projects, and public policy developments with an applied focus on case studies.

Dr. Zambrano-Bigiarini’s presentation, titled showcased the progress of the ( ) on three key issues related to water resources in the Araucanía Region:

Changes in the hydrological regime of mountain basins and their impact on projected spring and summer flows,
Trends towards increased droughts and water scarcity,
increased risk of floods and mudslides, with damage to communities and infrastructure.

A panel discussion followed.

SICyR 2025: Sessions HC2 and HC7

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Members of the participated in the , an event that brought together leading researchers, academics, and professionals from the social and natural sciences. The symposium took place on November 3-4 in Santiago, where the plenary sessions and workshops were held, and continued from November 5-7 in Viña del Mar, where the thematic scientific sessions took place.

Scientific Sessions

Between November 5th and 7th, I organized two thematic sessions. The first, HC7. Droughts: Monitoring, Propagation, and Impacts in a Changing Climate, was co-organized by Dr. Pablo Spennemann, an Argentinian professor with whom I have maintained an active collaboration since the , an initiative aimed at strengthening scientific exchange on drought in South America. The second session was HC2. Hydrological Processes in a Changing Climate, which I co-organized with Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos from Adolfo Ibáñez University, fostering interdisciplinary dialogue on hydrological processes in a changing climate context.

Furthermore, I gave an oral presentation titled “Understanding soil memory: how antecedent moisture modulates streamflow responses to precipitation events,” a collaborative work with Dr. Oscar Báez-Villanueva (University of Ghent, Belgium), Dr. Violeta Tolorza (formerly of UFRO), and student Héctor Garcés-Figueroa. This study addresses the influence of antecedent soil moisture on the hydrological response to precipitation events and is part of the Fondecyt Regular Project No. 1212071.

Similarly, some members of the presented the following work:

Héctor Garcés-Figueroa, a research assistant on the Fondecyt Regular project 1212071, gave an oral presentation on the work “Ahead of the Flood: Medium-Range Hydrological Forecasting for Southern Chilean Catchments” which explores the use of medium-range hydrological forecasts to improve flood anticipation in basins in southern Chile. He also co-authored the presentation by Dr. Zambrano-Bigiarini.
Rocío Muñoz, a member of the Observatory and a Civil Engineer from the University of La Frontera, presented a poster titled “Operational Monitoring of Soil Moisture Anomalies for Continental Chile”. This work makes a significant contribution to the development of tools for monitoring and analyzing soil moisture at a national scale, and is part of his doctoral thesis project.
Fernando Gimeno Molina, a doctoral candidate in the Doctoral Program in Natural Resources Sciences at the University of La Frontera, presented his research in poster format, titled “Soil Mapping Matters: Changes in High Streamflow Simulations through Spatial Soil Information”. His study highlighted the relevance of spatial soil information in modeling high-flow events, a key issue for flood risk management.

The presentations by the Kimün-Ko team generated considerable interest among the attendees, receiving positive and insightful feedback from researchers at various national and international universities. The quality of the work, along with the approach applied to the current challenges of climate change and water resource management, was widely recognized by the scientific community.

The Observatory’s participation in this symposium reaffirms its commitment to cutting-edge research and interdisciplinary collaboration, contributing relevant knowledge to build a more resilient society in the face of the impacts of climate change.

Drought Propagation

Finally, this international symposium allowed me to meet for the first time with Dr. Pablo Spennemann, an Argentinian researcher with whom I am investigating the mechanisms and timescales that control drought propagation in four Chilean river basins (Petorca, Mapocho, Cauquenes, and Trancura), from precipitation deficits to decreased soil moisture and flow rates, and the impact on vegetation.

Former and current Kimün-Ko members along with Dr. Mauricio Gellguillos (UAI), Giancarlo Casanova, DR(c) Emilia Figueiras (AR) y Dr. Pablo Spennemann

SICyR 2025: R course

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

R Course: Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

On November 4, I taught the course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5, which was attended by undergraduate and graduate students, as well as public and private sector professionals.

Course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5

SICyR 2025: R course

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

R Course: Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

Course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5

WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a consolidated report confirming that 2024 was the warmest calendar year on record. By synthesizing six leading international datasets, the WMO provides a high-confidence assessment of global thermal anomalies, the state of oceanic heat reservoirs, and the current standing of international climate targets.

1. Temperature anomalies and statistical significance

The global mean surface temperature in 2024 was calculated at $1.55 \text{°C}$ above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, with a margin of uncertainty of $\pm 0.13 \text{°C}$. This marks the first time a single calendar year has likely exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.

To ensure authoritative results, the WMO integrated data from the following institutions:

Atmospheric/Satellite Agencies: ECMWF (Europe), Japan Meteorological Agency, NASA (USA).
Surface Instrumental Records: NOAA (USA), Berkeley Earth, and the UK Met Office (HadCRUT).

While all six datasets identified 2024 as the warmest year, slight methodological variations mean that not every individual agency placed the anomaly above 1.5°C. However, the consolidated mean provides a robust signal of unprecedented global heating.

2. The Paris agreement vs. annual spikes

A critical technical distinction made in the report concerns the Paris Agreement. WMO experts clarify that a single-year breach of 1.5°C does not constitute a failure to meet the treaty’s long-term goals. The Paris Agreement targets are measured over multi-decadal averages (typically 20–30 years).

Current Long-Term Warming: As of 2024, the assessed long-term global warming trend stands at approximately 1.3°C above the baseline.
Transient Forcing: The 2024 spike was amplified by a strong El Niño event that persisted from mid-2023 through May 2024.

Despite this distinction, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that every fraction of a degree matters, as incremental increases correlate directly with the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, cryosphere loss, and sea-level rise.

3. Marine thermodynamics and Ocean Heat Content (OHC)

While surface temperatures capture public attention, the report highlights that 90% of excess heat from anthropogenic warming is absorbed by the oceans. A study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences cited by the WMO indicates that ocean temperatures have reached record highs in both surface and sub-surface layers (down to 2,000 meters).

Energy Benchmark: Between 2023 and 2024, the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean gained 16 Zettajoules ($10^{21}$ Joules) of heat. For context, this energy increase is approximately 140 times the total global electricity generation for the year 2023.

This massive thermal inertia in the marine system ensures that sea-level rise and glacier retreat will continue for centuries, regardless of short-term surface temperature fluctuations.

4. Policy implications and future monitoring

UN Secretary-General António Guterres utilized the report to call for trail-blazing climate action, urging governments to submit revised national climate action plans. The data serves as a technical foundation for the UN Climate Change negotiating process, providing the empirical evidence required for global decarbonization strategies. The WMO will release a comprehensive “State of the Global Climate 2024” report in March 2025, detailing further indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations and sea-ice extent.

For more information please visit:

.
Xie, SP., Miyamoto, A., Zhang, P. et al. What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row?. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 117 (2025).

“Today’s assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proves yet again – global heating is a cold, hard fact,” said UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres. Source: WMO

2023 was the warmest year on record, (NOAA)

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2023 was 1.18ºC above the 20th century, the highest global temperature among all years in NOAA’s 1850-2023 climate record. It also beats the next warmest year, 2016, by a record-setting margin of 0.15ºC.

The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In fact, the average global temperature for 2023 exceeded the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average by 1.35ºC.

For more information please visit:

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Hottest July on Record (174 years), (NASA)

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Earth just roasted under its hottest July on record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and also ffrom scientist from NASA.

For the fourth-consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature also hit a record high.

Overall, July 2023 was 0.24ºC warmer than any other July in NASA’s record (since 1880), and it was 1.18ºC warmer than the average July between 1951 and 1980.

Parts of South America, North Africa, North America, and the Antarctic Peninsula were especially hot, experiencing temperatures increases around 4ºC above average. Overall, extreme heat this summer put tens of millions of people under heat warnings and was linked to hundreds of heat-related illnesses and deaths. The record-breaking July continues a long-term trend of human-driven warming driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions that has become evident over the past four decades. According to NASA data, the five hottest Julys since 1880 have all happened in the past five years.

“Climate change is impacting people and ecosystems around the world, and we expect many of these impacts to escalate with continued warming” said Katherine Calvin, chief scientist and senior climate advisor at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Our agency observes climate change, its impacts, and its drivers, like greenhouse gases, and we are committed providing this information to help people plan for the future.”.

For more information please visit:

This map shows global temperature anomalies for July 2023 according to the GISTEMP analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Temperature anomalies reflect how July 2023 compared to the average July temperature from 1951-1980.Credits: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Earth just had its hottest June on record (NOAA)

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The world just sweltered through its hottest June in the 174-year global climate record.

The June global surface temperature was 1.05°C above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C, making it the warmest June on record. This marked the first time a June temperature exceeded 1°C above the long-term average.

June 2023 was 0.13°C warmer than the previous June record from 2020, but 0.29°C cooler than the all-time highest monthly temperature anomaly on record (March 2016).

June 2023 marked the 47th consecutive June and the 532nd consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th-century average.

Additionally, Earth’s ocean surface temperature anomaly, which indicates how much warmer or cooler temperatures are from the long-term average, were the highest ever recorded and the sea ice coverage hit a record low, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

For more information please visit:

This map shows global temperature anomalies for June 2023 according to the GISTEMP analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Temperature anomalies reflect how June 2023 compared to the average June temperature from 1951-1980. Credits: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Después de la gran tormenta, ¿cómo rediseñaremos? (El Mostrador)

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 00:00:00 +0000

I just published an opinion column in the newspaper El Mostrador on how we will redesign the infrastructure that have been affected by the big storm that hit the Central-South zone of Chile in the end of June of this year 2023.

In this column, I states that it is of vital importance that the design of future infrastructure works considers -at least- the estimation of flood risk maps, and that the use of floodplains (free of human settlements) be prioritized in the communal regulatory plans, floodplains that must be estimated using the best data and techniques available, to avoid future human, social and material tragedies.

For more information please visit:

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Is the megadrought over with the last frontal system? (The Clinic)

Tue, 19 Jul 2022 00:00:00 +0000

On July 19th, 2022, Dr. Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini was interviewed about the impact of the latest frontal system in the drought that affects our country by the digital newspaper The Clinic.

In , the academic discusses the impact that the latest rainfall had in reducing the water deficit in our country, and whether or not we can affirm that the mega-drought that affects our country has ended.

The full interview can be found here:

Cambio climático alimenta 'mancha' caliente oceánica que causa megasequía en Chile según un estudio (La Tercera)

Thu, 26 Aug 2021 00:00:00 +0000

According to a recent study, a gigantic slick of more than 8 million kilometers located east of New Zealand is largely responsible for the dramatic lack of water that is affecting the central area of Chile.

The full note can be read on the or in the .

The scientific article published in the Journal of Climate is available

Fuente: La Tercera

Seminario Cambio global y recursos hídricos: experiencias y desafíos

Thu, 29 Jul 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Researchers from the Universidad de La Frontera, U. de Chile, U. de los Lagos and the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, will meet this Friday, July 30th, to address some relevant issues from their professional and academic experience for the country and La Araucanía in terms of water resources.

Organized by the , the Seminar “Global change and water resources: experiences and challenges”, aims to disseminate the advances and experiences related to national water resources and generate a space for discussion with public services , the university community and local actors related to water resources, addressing topics such as: climate change, drought, water security, new data sources, water allocation permits, land use management and its impact on water availability, and erosion in forested catchments.

The full note inviting to this Seminar can be read

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Esta es la última víctima del cambio climático en Chile (La Tercera)

Wed, 17 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

A recent study by the Center for Climate Science and Resilience , led by Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos, analyzed in detail the impact of climate change and land use change on water availability from the Cauquenes River Basin, which dried up during the summer of 2020.

The full note can be read on the [(CR)2 website]( /) or directly in [La Tercera newspaper]( ? fbclid = IwAR3HEdPXPbTyu31vOPOoQCdKHdpX0hABAN0cabWORe_5HnExwsMN4ZH62DM).

The scientific article published in the Journal of Hydrology is available

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Balance Hídrico Nacional revela dramática situación: proyecta escasez de agua de hasta 50% y alza de temperatura de hasta 2.5°C

Mon, 04 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

An update of the Chilean Water Balance, led by academics from the University of Chile, reveals the complex local scenario, which apparently will not improve in the coming decades.

For more information please visit:

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Mawün rainfall explorer launched !

Tue, 01 Sep 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Mawün rainfall explorer launched !

After more than one year of development, on September 1st 2020 an unprecedented web platform for exploring gridded precipitation products was launced as a new weather service at the website: :

("rain" in ) is an online platform dedicated to exploring different spatially distributed estimates of precipitation available for continental Chile until 2019, whose main objective is to facilitate the visualization and exploratory analysis of various available products.

was developed by the Water Resources Observatory of the at the with the support of the .

A description of the web platform, examples, a complete tutorial and the platform itself can be found in the following links (only in Spanish):

Description:
Examples:
Tutorial:
Web platform:

All comments are highly welcome at the e-mail address indicated in the ‘Acerca de’ window of [Mawün].

I hope that this new climate service will be useful for all those interested in precipitation.

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Climate change: Last decade confirmed as warmest on record

Wed, 15 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The 10 years to the end of 2019 have been confirmed as the warmest decade on record by three global agencies.

According to Nasa, NOAA and the UK Met Office, last year was the second warmest in a record dating back to 1850.

The past five years were the hottest in the 170-year series, with the average of each one more than 1C warmer than pre-industrial.

The Met Office says that 2020 is likely to continue this warming trend.

2016 remains the warmest year on record, when temperatures were boosted by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

For more information please visit:

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Management of global change impacts on hydrological extremes by coupling remote sensing data and an interdisciplinary modelling approach (NSFC190018)

Tue, 12 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Climate change and rapid land-use transformation are reshaping hydrological regimes worldwide, intensifying droughts and floods while increasing pressure on already vulnerable watersheds. These challenges are particularly acute in regions where water resources sustain agriculture, forest production, hydropower, and rural livelihoods. At the same time, reservoir regulation and shifting land management practices further modify natural flow dynamics, often in ways that interact nonlinearly with climate variability. Understanding and quantifying these combined effects is therefore essential for advancing predictive hydrology and supporting adaptive water governance under global change. Within this context, this Chile–China collaborative project addresses the urgent need for integrated, process-based assessments of hydroclimatic and land-system interactions across contrasting socio-environmental settings.

Project description

This four-year research project (January December 2023) is funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the call. This project aims to develop and apply a comprehensive hydrological simulation framework to eight pilot basins (four in Chile and four in China) that represent diverse hydroclimatic conditions and water management challenges. Using two complementary models of different structural complexity (SWAT+ and Liuxihe) the research will simulate key hydrological processes and disentangle the relative contributions of climate change, land-use change, water use, and reservoir operations over the past three decades and throughout the 21st century. Historical reconstructions and future scenarios (including climate projections and land-use pathways aligned with policy instruments such as NDCs) will be combined to assess impacts on floods and droughts. A novel Synergistic Effect Function (SEF) will be proposed to quantify the compounded influence of multiple drivers. The project further integrates stakeholder engagement in the selected basins to co-develop science-based recommendations for land-use planning and water resources management, fostering bilateral knowledge exchange and producing transferable methodologies for hydroclimatic

Sequia y escasez hídrica en Chile - parecidas pero no iguales (El Mostrador)

Fri, 13 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

We cannot solve a problem that we do not fully understand. Water scarcity in a place is the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, hydrological processes and changes in the use that man makes of the resource. Our current inability to properly analyze and manage water scarcity points out a failure in our understanding of the problem as a whole, and to inadequate data and tools to monitor the evolution of water over time.

For more information please visit:

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Crisis hídrica, sequía legal y carretera hídrica (El Mostrador)

Wed, 11 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The country cannot continue to be a victim of the lobby of those who promote initiatives for their benefit over the damage of Chileans and against the public interest. Chile needs a legal framework that prioritizes security and equity in access to the vital element for the stability of drinking water, sanitation, food security and local productive development that ensures the well-being of the population and local and regional economies. The lucrative agribusiness and mining business cannot continue to put the country in greater water vulnerability, but to adjust, adapting to climate change.

For more information please visit:

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¿Temuco sin agua en 2025? (El Austral)

Thu, 05 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Professors Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini and Ivo Fustos of the Department of Civil Engineering at the Universidad de La Frontera expressed their opinion on the news published on September 1, 2019 in the newspaper and then reproduced by the newspaper .

The academics expressed that, given the amount of information currently available on the water situation in the region, it is impossible to predict with an adequate level of confidence the date on which Temuco will run out of water, if that happens at some point.

You can read the complete answer in the on September 5.

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Carretera hídrica: una falsa panacea (El Mostrador)

Tue, 03 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

These “solutions” to the problem of water supply, only serve to strengthen the close relationship between the State and companies that has existed in the field of water, ensuring private legal and functional ownership of an increasingly scarce resource . At the same time, this type of project shows that our country is increasingly moving away from integrated watershed management. The latter are the essential territorial references for the management of the water resource that should guide the preservation of life and society.

For more information please visit:

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10 mil animales han muerto en las regiones más golpeadas por la prolongada sequía (El Mercurio)

Sun, 01 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Due to the extended drought affecting central Chile, farmers in the area between the Coquimbo and Maule regions estimate that 10 000 animals have already died, including abortions that occur due to lack of food and water (5 000 in Valparaíso; 2 thousand in Coquimbo, and another 3 thousand in O’Higgins and el Maule).

For more information please visit:

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Maipo, Limarí y Maule, tres cuencas en que el cambio climático ya hizo estragos (La Tercera)

Fri, 30 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

An investigation by the PUC Global Change Center, an institution with more than 10 years studying this climatic phenomenon, recorded how the temperature in these areas has already changed due to global warming.

For more information please visit:

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La guerra del agua: las graves secuelas de la crisis hídrica en Chile (El Mostrador)

Mon, 26 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Central and Southern Chile have already suffered, for decades, a tendency to lower rainfall amounts, up to 7% per decade at some points, which will probably remain. By 2050, water available in Chile will be reduced by one third in some regions, according to current models, which will extend the irrigation periods that are applied today and reduce more water-intensive crops, especially those without access to technological improvements.

For more information please visit:

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Anomalies of monthly mean temperature compared to the 1961-1990 averages

Tue, 30 Jul 2019 00:00:00 +0000

A very impressive figure showing the

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Workshop on Climate Change Challenges for La Araucanía (Temuco)

Thu, 25 Jul 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Workshop on Climate Change Challenges for La Araucanía

On July 25, 2019, I made an oral presentation at the workshop entitled “Regional challenges of climate change for La Araucanía region”, organized by the Regional Ministry of Environment of the Araucanía region.

This seminar was held in the Aula Magna of the Universidad Mayor in Temuco, and was attended by various municipalities, NGOs, civil organizations and members of the Regional Committee on Climate Change (CORECC).

My presentation was entitled “Climate Change and Drought: Projections for Chile and Araucanía”, where 7 climate scenarios (RCP 8.5) for the Araucanía region were analysed, along with the water-related challenges that the Araucanía region very likely will face during the rest of this century.

More information .

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June 2019 was hottest on record for the globe

Thu, 18 Jul 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The average global temperature in June was 1.71ºF above the 20th-century average of 59.9ºF, making it the hottest June in the 140-year record, according scientists to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

Nine of the 10 hottest Junes have occurred since 2010. Last month also was the 43rd consecutive June and 414th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures.

For more information please visit the website:

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Workshop on Efficient Management of Water Resources (Vallenar)

Fri, 28 Jun 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Workshop on Efficient Management of Water Resources

On June 28th 2019 I made an oral presentation at the workshop “Efficient Management of Water Resources: a challenge against Climate Change”, organised by the University of Atacama and carried out at Vallenar in the Atacama region.

This workshop was funded by the Regional Government of Atacama in the framework of the finalization activity of the FIC Project “Laboratorio para el estudio hídrico de la Cuenca, uso eficiente, monitoreo y predicción de caudales aplicando Modelo de Redes Neuronales Artificiales y Snow Runoff Model Nasa para la cuenca del Río Huasco, Región de Atacama, Chile”.

My presentation was entitled “Space-time evaluation of IMERGv05-F satellite precipitation estimates over different climates and the complex topography of Chile”, which discussed the improvement of the lastest satellite estimates derived from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. In the afternoon, a hands-on training was carried out aimed at local stakeholders.

More information .

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44% of water scarcity in Chile is due to poor water management (La Tercera)

Mon, 17 Jun 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The National Water Balance, a document from the National Water Directorate (DGA) that this year will have its final version after 32 years, will establish how much water is available in the country. In an advance delivered at the beginning of the year, it has already established that the country has a water deficit that ranges between 10% and 37%.

To alleviate this deficit, the document “Transición Hídrica: el futuro del agua en Chile” proposes to establish a strategy with emphasis on four axes: water management and institutionality; conservation and protection of water ecosystems; efficiency and strategic use of water resources; and migration and incorporation of new water sources.

The implementation of these four measures would be key to achieving water security: “44% of the causes of water problems are related to poor management of the resource, 17% is due to the increase in demand for water, 14% to water pollution, 12% to the decrease in water supply , 6% to environmental damage of water ecosystems and 5% to the increase in the frequency of natural disasters” (Ulrike Broschek, leader of Escenarios Hídricos 2030 and Deputy Manager of Sustainability of Fundación Chile)

For more information please visit: y

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Agua: ¿ soluciones sostenibles? (Diario Austral)

Fri, 29 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Columna titulada , con ocasión del Día Mundial del Agua: .

Además:

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Agua y desarrollo sostenible (CodexVerde)

Fri, 22 Mar 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Columna titulada , con ocasión del Día Mundial del Agua: .

Además:

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The dramatic disappearance of water in Chile (La Tercera)

Thu, 21 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

A team of specialists from the Universidad de Chile and Universidad Católica is working on updating the National Water Balance, which dates back to 1987. During 2019, the final report will be issued.

The project is led by Ximena Vargas, academic from the Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences of the University of Chile. “What has been found in stations measuring precipitation and temperature is that, in general, there are decreases in average annual precipitation and increases in average annual temperature” This, she explains, has generated a decrease in the water availability in some coastal sectors. “Comparing the reported values for water availability (dating from 1987), changes in average annual runoff are around 10% and 37%” she points out.

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2018 was the fourth-hottest year on record

Wed, 06 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

2018 was the fourth hottest year on record, according to two independent reports released today (Feb. 6) by and the . Last year was so hot that global land- and ocean-surface temperatures were 1.42 degrees Fahrenheit (0.79 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average, NOAA reported. Since 1880, when record-keeping began, only three years - 2016 (the highest, in part because of El Niño), 2015 and 2017 — were hotter.

“The key message is that ,” Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, told reporters at a news conference. “And our understanding of why those trends are occurring is also very robust. It’s because of the greenhouse gases that we[’ve] put into the atmosphere over the last 100 years.”

The trend isn’t a new one. Nine of the 10 warmest winters have happened since 2005, and five of the warmest years on record happened within the last five years, or from 2014 to 2018.

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2016: Hottest Year on Record

Thu, 19 Jan 2017 00:00:00 +0000

Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 0.99 degrees Celsius (1.78 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the mid-20th century mean. This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures. Since the start of the 21st century, the annual global temperature record has been broken five times (2005, 2010, 2014, 2015, and 2016) .

Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001. Not only was 2016 the warmest year on record, but eight of the 12 months that make up the year - from January through September, with the exception of June - were the warmest on record for those respective months. October, November, and December of 2016 were the second warmest of those months on record - in all three cases, behind records set in 2015

The warming was truly global. “Some part of every continent, and some part of every major ocean basin was warmest on record” Arndt says, adding that in the United States, only Georgia and Alaska had record-setting warmth but “pretty much the entire country was above normal, and well above normal.”

“The long-term warming is driven almost entirely by greenhouse gases” Arndt says. “We’ve seen a warming trend related to greenhouse gases for four, five, six decades now”. .

Two graphs that shows the time evolution of globally-averaged temperatues are:

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Drought in Puyehue and Rupanco lakes (SoyChile.cl)

Sun, 21 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0000

After revealed the worrying decline in the water levels of Llanquihue Lake in the surrounding of Puerto Octay, it was found that is not the only lake basin of the region affected by the lack of rainfall that experts have attributed to climate change.

This is because now the Rupanco and Puyehue lakes in the province of Osorno, have also shown and alarming and disturbing situation. In the first case, locals say that in some sectors the beach has increased from 20 to 200 meters, and in areas normally covered by water can now move on foot or by vehicle.

A similar situation occurs in the Rupanco, where residents also confirm that there is an obvious decline in its water levels, exposing larger portions of land. *This is the year where I’ve seen the worst shortage of water in the lake. It has fallen very little rain. Luckily our pastures are still green, but the lake has suffered," said a local farmer.

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Expected changes in precipitation and temperature by 2050 (La Tercera)

Sun, 21 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0000

A recent study, delivered in July 2016, projected that by 2050 Santiago will have the most extreme variation in temperature of all regional capitals, with 2.7°C, which is 14% higher compared to today. In winter, the increase will be 1.7%, representing an increase of 19%, while precipitation will be reduced by 55 millimeters (mm), 15% less.

In other regional capitals, as Arica and Copiapó, extreme temperatures rise about 2.2°C are also expected for each summer, but it will be Arica where the temperature will rise more in winter, with 2.5° C.

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Megadrought expands to southern Chile (La Tercera)

Sun, 21 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0000

Today the country is experiencing one of the longest and most geographically extensive droughts in its history, which has nearly eight years in some sectors, and extends from the Coquimbo to the La Araucania region. Experts estimate that in the future these cycles would increase. According to an analysis by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2) in 2015, these mega-droughts will become more common, occurring in Chile every 20 years by 2050 if emissions continue to increase greenhouse gases.

To date, 17 of the 22 stations of the Meteorological Direction of Chile (DMC) present below normal precipitation amounts. Coyhaique (45ºS) is the one with the most extreme situation. There, the precipitation is around 220 mm, far from normal to date according to the climatological period 1981-2010, which is 884.5 mm, resulting in a deficit of 75%. The level of rainfall is the lowest registration for the area (starting in 1960), although it is projected that in the next three months rains occur within the normal range indicates Catalina Cortes, meteorologist at DMC. However, it should end the year in deficit.

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July 2016 was world's hottest month since records began, says Nasa (The Guardian)

Sat, 20 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0000

Nasa’s results, which combine sea-surface temperature and air temperature on land, show July 2016 was 10th month in a row to break monthly temperature record

As the string of hottest months continues, 2016 is virtually certain to be the hottest year on record, says David Karoly, a climate scientist from the University of Melbourne.

Last month was the hottest month in recorded history, beating the record set just 12 months before and continuing the long string of monthly records, according to the latest Nasa data.

The past nine months have set temperature records for their respective months and the trend continued this month to make 10 in a row, according to Nasa. July broke the absolute record for hottest month since records began in 1880.

Similar data from the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said the past 14 months have broken the temperature record for each month, but it hasn’t released its figures for July yet.

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El año 2015 batió récords de fenómenos climáticos extremos (El Mercurio)

Wed, 03 Aug 2016 00:00:00 +0000

El año 2015 marcó una temporada de lluvias más abundantes que el promedio, provocando graves inundaciones. Severas sequías afectaron superficies casi dos veces mayores en 2015 que en el año anterior (14%, contra 8% en 2014).

Las aguas más calientes agravaron la propagación de algas, que afectaron el 2015 una importante región del Pacífico norte, desde California hasta la Columbia Británica, en Canadá.

Calor y lluvias

En el caso sudamericano, El Niño influyó en las condiciones climáticas durante todo el 2015. La temperatura del aire aumentó por sobre el promedio en la mayor parte del continente, lo que generó condiciones más secas que el promedio en el norte y más húmedas en el sur, especialmente Chile y Argentina.

No obstante, se presentó un otoño e invierno más calurosos de lo habitual. En Argentina fue el invierno más caliente desde que se tienen registros, con un aumento de la media por sobre los 3ºC. En contraste, un aumento de los sistemas frontales y de la nubosidad produjo en Chile y, particularmente, en Argentina el más frío octubre desde que se tienen registros.

En marzo 2015, una anormal lluvia sorprendió a las secas regiones de Atacama y Antofagasta. En esta última ciudad, entre el 25 y el 26 de ese mes cayeron 24,4 milímetros de agua, cuando el promedio anual es de 1,7. En agosto y diciembre, las precipitaciones intensas se presentaron en Argentina y Paraguay, generando inundaciones.

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2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth (NASA-NOAA)

Mon, 01 Feb 2016 00:00:00 +0000

2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth, and it was not even close.

On January 20, 2016, scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their analyses of surface temperatures for the past year. The NASA team found that globally averaged temperatures from January through December 2015 were 0.87 degrees Celsius above the norm (defined as a 1951-1980 base period). The previous record—set last year—was 0.74°C above the norm. For the planet, 2015 was more than a full degree Celsius warmer than temperatures in 1880, when consistent record-keeping began. Working independently, NOAA researchers found 2015 to be 0.90°C above the 1901-2000 average. According to their analysis, 2015 was the second warmest year on record for the continental United States, Africa, and Europe. It was the warmest year for Asia and South America. Globally, new monthly temperature records were set in every month except January and April.

The 2015 temperature record continues a long-term warming trend that has largely been driven by increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that humans have emitted into the atmosphere. Most of the warming has occurred in the past 35 years, with 15 of the 16 warmest years on record occurring since 2001.

ENSO

Note that while El Niño conditions dominated the Pacific Ocean for most of 2015, it was not officially an El Niño year in strict climatological terms because ocean conditions did not manifest themselves until April 2015. In the past, the highest global temperature records were often set in El Niño years, which suggests that 2016—with El Niño going strong as of mid-January—appears likely to be another very warm year.

2015 was remarkable even in the context of the ongoing El Niño said NASA GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. Last year’s temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect of the long-term trend that has resulted in the record warming that we are seeing. Climate change is the challenge of our generation”, said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. Today’s announcement not only underscores how critical NASA’s Earth observation program is, it is a key data point that should make policymakers stand up and take notice. Now is the time to act on climate.

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