Chile | Dr. Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

SICA: Integrated Climate and Water System in Chile (TA25I10030. )

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Climate change is intensifying hydrological extremes; such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves; posing growing challenges for water resources management and risk reduction. Addressing these challenges requires reliable, spatially consistent hydrological simulations at the catchment scale, capable of linking atmospheric processes with surface water responses across diverse climatic and physiographic conditions. High-quality, integrated climate–hydrology information is therefore essential to support robust scientific analysis and evidence-based decision-making.

Project description

SICLO is a four-year research project (December 2025–November 2029) funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the Concurso IDeA I+D Tecnologías Avanzadas 2025 call. The project aims to develop an integrated climate service for continental Chile by coupling satellite-based observations, regional climate modeling, and distributed surface hydrological modeling.

The SICLO framework will generate physically consistent estimates of key atmospheric and hydrological variables across historical, near-real-time, and future climate scenarios, with a particular emphasis on catchment-scale processes. The resulting datasets and modeling tools are designed to support hydrological analysis, impact assessment, and the evaluation of climate-driven changes in water availability and extremes.

The project (ANID-TA25I10030: SICA – Integrated Climate and Water System in Chile) is led by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2) and brings together a multidisciplinary team of researchers and professionals, including Juan P. Boisier (Director, PI), Camila Alvarez-Garreton (Co-Director, PI), Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Francisca Muñoz, René Garreaud, and Pilar Barría.

Hidrodesafios 2025 Seminar

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

On Wednesday, November 26th 2025, I participated as a speaker at the seminar “ ” organized by the Sanitation Services Concessionaire Company S.A. (ECONSSA Chile) with sponsorship from the Chilean Association for Water Rights (AChDA) and Fundación Chile.

This event took place from 8:30 hrs at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in the Las Condes district, with the objective of addressing the future of the sanitation sector in a context of water scarcity and climate change, and analyzing the role of seawater desalination and wastewater reuse in confronting the water crisis.

My presentation was entitled “ ”, in which I addressed three key challenges for water resources in the Araucanía Region:

changes in the hydrological regime of mountain catchments and their impact on projected spring and summer streamflows,
selection of indices and timescales used to monitor droughts and the importance of linking them with droughts impacts on the territory,
the role of soil moisture in peak streamflows generated by intense storms, and preliminary results from an early flood warning system currently developed for critical basins of the Araucanía Region.

At the end of the day, representatives from the two presidential candidates debated the future of the healthcare sector in the context of water scarcity and climate change.

More information and the program for the event can be found at

Debate on proposals for the water and sanitary sector in Chile

III Regional Climate Change Seminar

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

On Friday, November 21 2025, I participated as a speaker at the III Regional Climate Change Seminar, organized by the Regional Environmental Secretariat (SEREMI) of the Araucanía Region, the Regional Government of the Araucanía Region, the Catholic University of Temuco, and EBP.

The seminar aimed to share the contents of the with key stakeholders in the region, strengthening regional understanding, ownership, and commitment to addressing the challenges of climate change.

Through a participatory, informative, and cultural forum, the seminar sought to highlight the actions being implemented in the region, promote the exchange of experiences, and raise awareness about the importance of local climate action to move towards a more resilient and sustainable region. The event included the participation of regional experts and professionals from public institutions who presented studies, projects, and public policy developments with an applied focus on case studies.

Dr. Zambrano-Bigiarini’s presentation, titled showcased the progress of the ( ) on three key issues related to water resources in the Araucanía Region:

Changes in the hydrological regime of mountain basins and their impact on projected spring and summer flows,
Trends towards increased droughts and water scarcity,
increased risk of floods and mudslides, with damage to communities and infrastructure.

A panel discussion followed.

SICyR 2025: Sessions HC2 and HC7

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Members of the participated in the , an event that brought together leading researchers, academics, and professionals from the social and natural sciences. The symposium took place on November 3-4 in Santiago, where the plenary sessions and workshops were held, and continued from November 5-7 in Viña del Mar, where the thematic scientific sessions took place.

Scientific Sessions

Between November 5th and 7th, I organized two thematic sessions. The first, HC7. Droughts: Monitoring, Propagation, and Impacts in a Changing Climate, was co-organized by Dr. Pablo Spennemann, an Argentinian professor with whom I have maintained an active collaboration since the , an initiative aimed at strengthening scientific exchange on drought in South America. The second session was HC2. Hydrological Processes in a Changing Climate, which I co-organized with Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos from Adolfo Ibáñez University, fostering interdisciplinary dialogue on hydrological processes in a changing climate context.

Furthermore, I gave an oral presentation titled “Understanding soil memory: how antecedent moisture modulates streamflow responses to precipitation events,” a collaborative work with Dr. Oscar Báez-Villanueva (University of Ghent, Belgium), Dr. Violeta Tolorza (formerly of UFRO), and student Héctor Garcés-Figueroa. This study addresses the influence of antecedent soil moisture on the hydrological response to precipitation events and is part of the Fondecyt Regular Project No. 1212071.

Similarly, some members of the presented the following work:

Héctor Garcés-Figueroa, a research assistant on the Fondecyt Regular project 1212071, gave an oral presentation on the work “Ahead of the Flood: Medium-Range Hydrological Forecasting for Southern Chilean Catchments” which explores the use of medium-range hydrological forecasts to improve flood anticipation in basins in southern Chile. He also co-authored the presentation by Dr. Zambrano-Bigiarini.
Rocío Muñoz, a member of the Observatory and a Civil Engineer from the University of La Frontera, presented a poster titled “Operational Monitoring of Soil Moisture Anomalies for Continental Chile”. This work makes a significant contribution to the development of tools for monitoring and analyzing soil moisture at a national scale, and is part of his doctoral thesis project.
Fernando Gimeno Molina, a doctoral candidate in the Doctoral Program in Natural Resources Sciences at the University of La Frontera, presented his research in poster format, titled “Soil Mapping Matters: Changes in High Streamflow Simulations through Spatial Soil Information”. His study highlighted the relevance of spatial soil information in modeling high-flow events, a key issue for flood risk management.

The presentations by the Kimün-Ko team generated considerable interest among the attendees, receiving positive and insightful feedback from researchers at various national and international universities. The quality of the work, along with the approach applied to the current challenges of climate change and water resource management, was widely recognized by the scientific community.

The Observatory’s participation in this symposium reaffirms its commitment to cutting-edge research and interdisciplinary collaboration, contributing relevant knowledge to build a more resilient society in the face of the impacts of climate change.

Drought Propagation

Finally, this international symposium allowed me to meet for the first time with Dr. Pablo Spennemann, an Argentinian researcher with whom I am investigating the mechanisms and timescales that control drought propagation in four Chilean river basins (Petorca, Mapocho, Cauquenes, and Trancura), from precipitation deficits to decreased soil moisture and flow rates, and the impact on vegetation.

Former and current Kimün-Ko members along with Dr. Mauricio Gellguillos (UAI), Giancarlo Casanova, DR(c) Emilia Figueiras (AR) y Dr. Pablo Spennemann

SICyR 2025: R course

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

R Course: Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

On November 4, I taught the course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5, which was attended by undergraduate and graduate students, as well as public and private sector professionals.

Course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5

SICyR 2025: R course

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

R Course: Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

Course Using R for Spatiotemporal Data Analysis: Application to Precipitation from CR2Met2.5

Anemometer installation at the Invernada station

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Last Tuesday, April 9th 2024, part of the Water Resources Observatory team of the Department of Civil Engineering ( ) of the Universidad of La Frontera carried out the installation of an anemometer in the Invernada meteorological station located in the Conguillio National Park (Los Paraguas sector).

The installation of this anemometer will allow the station to record both the average hourly wind speed, the gust speed (maximum instantaneous speed), and the wind direction. These parameters are added to the existing measurements of precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and dew point, providing essential data for future research related to water resources in the region. In particular, from now on it will be possible to estimate the reference evapotranspiration, which accounts for the maximum amount of water that a standard crop is capable of evaporating.

It is important to note that this station is one of the few located at an elevation close to 1000 meters above sea level in the La Araucanía Region. In addition, this station transmits data in (almost) real time, which can be viewed at the following link:

This milestone marked the end of a great filed work day for the team, which in this occasion included Dra. Rebeca Martínez, Civil Engineer Rodrigo Marinao, undergratuate student Marfa Saldivia and Dr. Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini. During the installation day it was also possible to carry out other routine activities, including streamflow measurements (through gauging and mass balance) and estimation of soil hydraulic conductivity (double ring infiltrometer).

These advances have been possible thanks to the funding provided by the projects: ANID Fondecyt Regular 1212071, ANID-NSFC 190018, ANID Fondecyt Postdoctoral 11190864, UFRO Postdoc grant405VRIP20P001, and ANID Fondecyt Postdoctoral 3220382.

Anemómetro

Estación invernada

Parte del equipo de trabjo

Cambio climático alimenta 'mancha' caliente oceánica que causa megasequía en Chile según un estudio (La Tercera)

Thu, 26 Aug 2021 00:00:00 +0000

According to a recent study, a gigantic slick of more than 8 million kilometers located east of New Zealand is largely responsible for the dramatic lack of water that is affecting the central area of Chile.

The full note can be read on the or in the .

The scientific article published in the Journal of Climate is available

Fuente: La Tercera

Seminario Cambio global y recursos hídricos: experiencias y desafíos

Thu, 29 Jul 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Researchers from the Universidad de La Frontera, U. de Chile, U. de los Lagos and the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, will meet this Friday, July 30th, to address some relevant issues from their professional and academic experience for the country and La Araucanía in terms of water resources.

Organized by the , the Seminar “Global change and water resources: experiences and challenges”, aims to disseminate the advances and experiences related to national water resources and generate a space for discussion with public services , the university community and local actors related to water resources, addressing topics such as: climate change, drought, water security, new data sources, water allocation permits, land use management and its impact on water availability, and erosion in forested catchments.

The full note inviting to this Seminar can be read

My Caption

Esta es la última víctima del cambio climático en Chile (La Tercera)

Wed, 17 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

A recent study by the Center for Climate Science and Resilience , led by Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos, analyzed in detail the impact of climate change and land use change on water availability from the Cauquenes River Basin, which dried up during the summer of 2020.

The full note can be read on the [(CR)2 website]( /) or directly in [La Tercera newspaper]( ? fbclid = IwAR3HEdPXPbTyu31vOPOoQCdKHdpX0hABAN0cabWORe_5HnExwsMN4ZH62DM).

The scientific article published in the Journal of Hydrology is available

My Caption

The catchment’s memory: understanding how hydrological extremes are modulated by antecedent soil moisture conditions in a warmer climate

Tue, 02 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Global warming is reshaping the hydrological cycle, not only through gradual shifts in mean precipitation but also by intensifying precipitation extremes. These extremes cascade through river basins, potentially triggering floods or prolonged hydrological droughts, with far-reaching impacts on communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. A critical regulator of this cascade is antecedent soil moisture, which governs runoff generation and reflects the “memory” of the catchment and modulating how atmospheric anomalies translate into hydrological responses.

Chile’s 2010–2019 megadrought offers a unique large-scale natural experiment to examine how sustained warming and drying alter the transformation of meteorological extremes into hydrological extremes. Understanding this transformation is essential for anticipating future risks under a changing climate.

Project description

This four-year research project (April 2021–March 2025) is funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the Concurso Fondecyt Regular 2021 call. The project investigates four representative Chilean catchments (Petorca en Longotoma, Mapocho en Los Almendros, Cauquenes en Desembocadura y Trancura antes de Llafenco) over the 1980–2019 period, integrating statistical extreme-event analysis with process-based hydrological modelling. Meteorological and hydrological extremes will be systematically characterized using standardised indices (e.g., SPI, SSI/SRI) and complementary metrics of duration, volume, and intensity to assess multi-decadal changes in frequency and severity.

To explore the mechanisms underlying these changes, two hydrological models with contrasting structural representations of catchment processes will be implemented (TUWmodel, SWAT+). Model calibration will rely on a multi-variable, multi-objective framework, jointly assimilating in-situ observations and advanced remote-sensing products, including soil moisture, total water storage, evapotranspiration, and snow cover.

Sub-daily simulations (2001–2019) will further enable a detailed assessment of how antecedent soil moisture conditions influence peak discharge generation and storm-event dynamics, providing process-level insight into the amplification or attenuation of extremes.

The project (ANID-Fondecyt 1212071: The catchment’s memory: understanding how hydrological extremes are modulated by antecedent soil moisture conditions in a warmer climate) is led by me, and have Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos (U. de Chile and U. Adolfo Ibañez, Chile), Dra. Camila Alvarez-Garreton (CR2, Chile) and Dr. Oscar Baez-Villanueva (U. Ghent, Belgium) as co-investigators.

Expected contribution to decision-making

By elucidating the role of soil moisture as a mediator between atmospheric forcing and hydrological response, the project will advance understanding of how warming climates reshape flood and drought dynamics. The results will provide quantitative evidence on the potential amplification of flood peaks and the persistence of hydrological droughts under changing baseline conditions.

These findings will directly inform water resources planning, risk assessment, and early-warning system design. Beyond Chile, the methodological framework and analytical tools developed in this project will offer transferable approaches for operational hydrological assessment and climate resilience planning in regions facing increasing hydroclimatic stress.

Balance Hídrico Nacional revela dramática situación: proyecta escasez de agua de hasta 50% y alza de temperatura de hasta 2.5°C

Mon, 04 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000

An update of the Chilean Water Balance, led by academics from the University of Chile, reveals the complex local scenario, which apparently will not improve in the coming decades.

For more information please visit:

My Caption

Entra en vigencia la nueva Ley de Servicios Sanitarios Rurales

Mon, 23 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Noticia titulada , donde se describe la nueva Ley N°20.998, la cual permitirá avanzar en forma significativa para garantizar el abastecimiento de agua potable y saneamiento para los habitantes del sector rural.

My Caption

Management of global change impacts on hydrological extremes by coupling remote sensing data and an interdisciplinary modelling approach (NSFC190018)

Tue, 12 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Climate change and rapid land-use transformation are reshaping hydrological regimes worldwide, intensifying droughts and floods while increasing pressure on already vulnerable watersheds. These challenges are particularly acute in regions where water resources sustain agriculture, forest production, hydropower, and rural livelihoods. At the same time, reservoir regulation and shifting land management practices further modify natural flow dynamics, often in ways that interact nonlinearly with climate variability. Understanding and quantifying these combined effects is therefore essential for advancing predictive hydrology and supporting adaptive water governance under global change. Within this context, this Chile–China collaborative project addresses the urgent need for integrated, process-based assessments of hydroclimatic and land-system interactions across contrasting socio-environmental settings.

Project description

This four-year research project (January December 2023) is funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the call. This project aims to develop and apply a comprehensive hydrological simulation framework to eight pilot basins (four in Chile and four in China) that represent diverse hydroclimatic conditions and water management challenges. Using two complementary models of different structural complexity (SWAT+ and Liuxihe) the research will simulate key hydrological processes and disentangle the relative contributions of climate change, land-use change, water use, and reservoir operations over the past three decades and throughout the 21st century. Historical reconstructions and future scenarios (including climate projections and land-use pathways aligned with policy instruments such as NDCs) will be combined to assess impacts on floods and droughts. A novel Synergistic Effect Function (SEF) will be proposed to quantify the compounded influence of multiple drivers. The project further integrates stakeholder engagement in the selected basins to co-develop science-based recommendations for land-use planning and water resources management, fostering bilateral knowledge exchange and producing transferable methodologies for hydroclimatic