Projects | Dr. Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

SICA: Integrated Climate and Water System in Chile (TA25I10030. )

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Climate change is intensifying hydrological extremes; such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves; posing growing challenges for water resources management and risk reduction. Addressing these challenges requires reliable, spatially consistent hydrological simulations at the catchment scale, capable of linking atmospheric processes with surface water responses across diverse climatic and physiographic conditions. High-quality, integrated climate–hydrology information is therefore essential to support robust scientific analysis and evidence-based decision-making.

Project description

SICLO is a four-year research project (December 2025–November 2029) funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the Concurso IDeA I+D Tecnologías Avanzadas 2025 call. The project aims to develop an integrated climate service for continental Chile by coupling satellite-based observations, regional climate modeling, and distributed surface hydrological modeling.

The SICLO framework will generate physically consistent estimates of key atmospheric and hydrological variables across historical, near-real-time, and future climate scenarios, with a particular emphasis on catchment-scale processes. The resulting datasets and modeling tools are designed to support hydrological analysis, impact assessment, and the evaluation of climate-driven changes in water availability and extremes.

The project (ANID-TA25I10030: SICA – Integrated Climate and Water System in Chile) is led by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2) and brings together a multidisciplinary team of researchers and professionals, including Juan P. Boisier (Director, PI), Camila Alvarez-Garreton (Co-Director, PI), Mauricio Galleguillos, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Francisca Muñoz, René Garreaud, and Pilar Barría.

The catchment’s memory: understanding how hydrological extremes are modulated by antecedent soil moisture conditions in a warmer climate

Tue, 02 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Global warming is reshaping the hydrological cycle, not only through gradual shifts in mean precipitation but also by intensifying precipitation extremes. These extremes cascade through river basins, potentially triggering floods or prolonged hydrological droughts, with far-reaching impacts on communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. A critical regulator of this cascade is antecedent soil moisture, which governs runoff generation and reflects the “memory” of the catchment and modulating how atmospheric anomalies translate into hydrological responses.

Chile’s 2010–2019 megadrought offers a unique large-scale natural experiment to examine how sustained warming and drying alter the transformation of meteorological extremes into hydrological extremes. Understanding this transformation is essential for anticipating future risks under a changing climate.

Project description

This four-year research project (April 2021–March 2025) is funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the Concurso Fondecyt Regular 2021 call. The project investigates four representative Chilean catchments (Petorca en Longotoma, Mapocho en Los Almendros, Cauquenes en Desembocadura y Trancura antes de Llafenco) over the 1980–2019 period, integrating statistical extreme-event analysis with process-based hydrological modelling. Meteorological and hydrological extremes will be systematically characterized using standardised indices (e.g., SPI, SSI/SRI) and complementary metrics of duration, volume, and intensity to assess multi-decadal changes in frequency and severity.

To explore the mechanisms underlying these changes, two hydrological models with contrasting structural representations of catchment processes will be implemented (TUWmodel, SWAT+). Model calibration will rely on a multi-variable, multi-objective framework, jointly assimilating in-situ observations and advanced remote-sensing products, including soil moisture, total water storage, evapotranspiration, and snow cover.

Sub-daily simulations (2001–2019) will further enable a detailed assessment of how antecedent soil moisture conditions influence peak discharge generation and storm-event dynamics, providing process-level insight into the amplification or attenuation of extremes.

The project (ANID-Fondecyt 1212071: The catchment’s memory: understanding how hydrological extremes are modulated by antecedent soil moisture conditions in a warmer climate) is led by me, and have Dr. Mauricio Galleguillos (U. de Chile and U. Adolfo Ibañez, Chile), Dra. Camila Alvarez-Garreton (CR2, Chile) and Dr. Oscar Baez-Villanueva (U. Ghent, Belgium) as co-investigators.

Expected contribution to decision-making

By elucidating the role of soil moisture as a mediator between atmospheric forcing and hydrological response, the project will advance understanding of how warming climates reshape flood and drought dynamics. The results will provide quantitative evidence on the potential amplification of flood peaks and the persistence of hydrological droughts under changing baseline conditions.

These findings will directly inform water resources planning, risk assessment, and early-warning system design. Beyond Chile, the methodological framework and analytical tools developed in this project will offer transferable approaches for operational hydrological assessment and climate resilience planning in regions facing increasing hydroclimatic stress.

Management of global change impacts on hydrological extremes by coupling remote sensing data and an interdisciplinary modelling approach (NSFC190018)

Tue, 12 Nov 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Context and motivation

Climate change and rapid land-use transformation are reshaping hydrological regimes worldwide, intensifying droughts and floods while increasing pressure on already vulnerable watersheds. These challenges are particularly acute in regions where water resources sustain agriculture, forest production, hydropower, and rural livelihoods. At the same time, reservoir regulation and shifting land management practices further modify natural flow dynamics, often in ways that interact nonlinearly with climate variability. Understanding and quantifying these combined effects is therefore essential for advancing predictive hydrology and supporting adaptive water governance under global change. Within this context, this Chile–China collaborative project addresses the urgent need for integrated, process-based assessments of hydroclimatic and land-system interactions across contrasting socio-environmental settings.

Project description

This four-year research project (January December 2023) is funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development ( ) under the call. This project aims to develop and apply a comprehensive hydrological simulation framework to eight pilot basins (four in Chile and four in China) that represent diverse hydroclimatic conditions and water management challenges. Using two complementary models of different structural complexity (SWAT+ and Liuxihe) the research will simulate key hydrological processes and disentangle the relative contributions of climate change, land-use change, water use, and reservoir operations over the past three decades and throughout the 21st century. Historical reconstructions and future scenarios (including climate projections and land-use pathways aligned with policy instruments such as NDCs) will be combined to assess impacts on floods and droughts. A novel Synergistic Effect Function (SEF) will be proposed to quantify the compounded influence of multiple drivers. The project further integrates stakeholder engagement in the selected basins to co-develop science-based recommendations for land-use planning and water resources management, fostering bilateral knowledge exchange and producing transferable methodologies for hydroclimatic